SRI - Singapore Realtors Inc.

02 Jan 2025

4Q2024 Flash Estimates: Singapore’s Property Market at a Turning Point

Property Insight

The 4Q2024 URA and HDB Flash Estimates reveal a notable recovery in the private property market and a tempered growth in the HDB resale market. According to SRI Research, the private property price index grew by 2.3% in 4Q2024, rebounding from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. This resurgence is attributed to easing interest rates and a wave of new project launches, which boosted buyer confidence and increased transaction volumes.

Private property transactions saw a substantial quarter-on-quarter rise, with volume increasing by 25.0% to 6,715 units and transaction value surging 33.6% to $15.7 billion. The $1.5 million to $3.0 million price segment led the market, growing from 63.6% of sales in 2023 to 70.3% in 2024, reflecting buyers' preference for affordability and value. Overall, private property prices in 2024 increased moderately by 3.9%, down from the 6.8% growth recorded in 2023, signaling a stabilizing market influenced by Government Land Sales (GLS), inflationary pressures, and earlier cooling measures.

In the HDB resale market, prices grew at a slower pace of 2.5% in 4Q2024, compared to 2.7% in 3Q2024. Annual growth, however, reached 9.6%, nearly doubling the 4.9% increase in 2023. Cooling measures introduced in 3Q2024 have tempered million-dollar transactions, which declined by 13.9% quarter-on-quarter to 285 units in 4Q2024. Despite this, the overall number of such transactions in 2024 remains historically elevated, supported by demand for spacious executive flats and flats in mature estates.

Newer flats in mature estates dominated the million-dollar resale segment, accounting for 375 out of 382 transactions for flats with lease commencement dates from 2013 onwards. These properties are favoured for their accessibility, modern layouts, and longer leases, highlighting the importance of strategic urban planning in addressing buyer preferences.

In summary, the 4Q2024 estimates depict a recovering private property market and a resilient HDB resale segment, shaped by adaptive buyer sentiments and strategic interventions. Both markets are set for stable growth in 2025, underscored by a balance of robust demand, limited supply, and regulatory oversight.

Click here for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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Developer Sales Jump to 1,937 Units in March 2026 on Surge in New Launches

Developer sales staged a strong recovery in March 2026, with a total of 1,937 units sold including Executive Condominiums (ECs), a significant increase from the 266 units transacted in February. This marks the first time this year that monthly sales have crossed the 1,000-unit threshold, signalling a meaningful pickup in primary market activity following the seasonal lull during the Chinese New Year period.

The rebound in sales was largely driven by a corresponding increase in new project launches. Developers released 1,615 units in March, a substantial rise from the limited supply seen in February. Key projects such as Pinery Residences, Rivelle Tampines and River Modern were major contributors, collectively accounting for about 76.9% of total transactions. This highlights a clear trend in the current market environment where buyer demand remains intact, but is closely tied to the timing, quality and positioning of new launches.

The strong performance of these projects reflects how well calibrated offerings continue to resonate with buyers. In particular, Pinery Residences and Rivelle Tampines each recorded over 500 units sold, underscoring the continued strength of demand in the Outside Central Region (OCR), where pricing remains relatively accessible and is supported by first time buyers and upgraders. At the same time, River Modern’s robust take up, with 416 units sold at a median price of about $3,220 psf, points to sustained interest within the Core Central Region (CCR).

Looking ahead, the momentum observed in March is expected to carry into the coming months, supported by a pipeline of upcoming launches such as Vela Bay and Tengah Garden Residences. As more projects enter the market across both established and emerging precincts, transaction volumes are likely to remain supported by genuine demand, albeit at a more calibrated pace.

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here

for the full report:

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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Hoi Hup Tops Miltonia Close EC Site at $732 psf ppr

The tender for the Executive Condominium site at Miltonia Close has concluded with a total of 3 bidders, with Hoi Hup Realty Pte Ltd emerging as the top bidder with an offer of $340.9 million, translating to $732 psf ppr. While the number of bidders is more selective compared to some earlier tenders, it continues to reflect steady developer interest in well located EC sites, particularly within established residential areas.

The top bid is about 7.8% lower than the recently awarded Woodlands Drive 17 GLS site, which achieved $794 psf ppr. Rather than signalling a pullback, this difference points towards a more measured and calibrated approach by developers. With a growing pipeline of EC sites in the North, including parcels in Woodlands, Sembawang, Canberra Drive and Sembawang Drive, developers are likely pacing their land acquisitions more carefully. This reflects a more forward looking strategy, where developers are balancing immediate opportunities with the need to remain competitive within an expanding supply landscape.

At the same time, the Miltonia Close site presents a compelling proposition from a locational and lifestyle perspective. Situated near Lower Seletar Reservoir and within a quieter residential enclave, the site is well positioned to appeal to buyers who prioritise a more tranquil and nature oriented living environment. This suggests that the future development may attract a more defined buyer profile, particularly families and genuine owner occupiers, rather than those driven primarily by proximity to MRT connectivity or commercial nodes.

From a broader market perspective, the EC segment continues to be supported by a stable base of upgrader demand, especially from HDB households seeking to transition into private housing in a more accessible manner. This underlying demand has remained resilient, as seen in recent launches such as Rivelle Tampines, which recorded strong take up rates when projects are well positioned in terms of pricing and attributes.

Looking ahead, the EC market is entering a phase of greater supply visibility, following the ramp up in Government Land Sales supply. This is a positive development for the market, as it supports a more balanced and sustainable environment. With a more consistent pipeline of projects, price movements are likely to become more measured and closely aligned with underlying demand fundamentals, rather than being driven by supply constraints.

Overall, the tender outcome reflects a market that is evolving in a more balanced and sustainable manner. While developers remain active, there is a greater emphasis on discipline, positioning and long term planning. At the same time, demand fundamentals for ECs remain intact, supporting the outlook for steady absorption in well located and appropriately priced developments such as Miltonia Close.

Click

here

for the full report:

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email:

mohan@sri.com.sg

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Kallang Close GLS Draws 4 Bidders with Top Bid of $1,415 psf ppr

The Government Land Sales tender for the Kallang Close site has closed with Frasers Property and Mitsubishi Estate (via MJR Investment) emerging as the top bidder at $1,415 psf ppr, narrowly ahead of City Developments Limited. The relatively tight spread between bids reflects a broadly aligned view among developers on the site’s underlying value and long-term potential. In total, the site attracted 4 bidders, with the outcome broadly in line with recent GLS tenders, including the Tanjong Rhu site which was awarded at $1,455 psf ppr.

The results point to continued confidence in well-located city fringe sites, although developers remain measured in their bidding approach. The ongoing ramp-up in the GLS programme has contributed to a more visible supply pipeline, allowing developers to adopt a more disciplined stance without the need to bid aggressively for individual sites.

At the same time, rising construction costs driven by geopolitical developments, particularly increases in diesel and bitumen, are beginning to influence development considerations. This has likely been factored into bids, especially for sites like Kallang Close which come with additional infrastructure and placemaking requirements. The presence of joint venture participation also reflects a growing trend of developers partnering to manage costs and risks more effectively.

Looking ahead, the site is expected to yield about 470 residential units and could tap into underlying demand in the Kallang and Boon Keng area, where new private housing supply has been relatively limited. Over time, the development may contribute to the transformation of the Kallang River corridor into a more vibrant waterfront residential cluster.

Click

here

for the full report:

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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