SRI - Singapore Realtors Inc.

02 Jan 2025

4Q2024 Flash Estimates: Singapore’s Property Market at a Turning Point

Property Insight

The 4Q2024 URA and HDB Flash Estimates reveal a notable recovery in the private property market and a tempered growth in the HDB resale market. According to SRI Research, the private property price index grew by 2.3% in 4Q2024, rebounding from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. This resurgence is attributed to easing interest rates and a wave of new project launches, which boosted buyer confidence and increased transaction volumes.

Private property transactions saw a substantial quarter-on-quarter rise, with volume increasing by 25.0% to 6,715 units and transaction value surging 33.6% to $15.7 billion. The $1.5 million to $3.0 million price segment led the market, growing from 63.6% of sales in 2023 to 70.3% in 2024, reflecting buyers' preference for affordability and value. Overall, private property prices in 2024 increased moderately by 3.9%, down from the 6.8% growth recorded in 2023, signaling a stabilizing market influenced by Government Land Sales (GLS), inflationary pressures, and earlier cooling measures.

In the HDB resale market, prices grew at a slower pace of 2.5% in 4Q2024, compared to 2.7% in 3Q2024. Annual growth, however, reached 9.6%, nearly doubling the 4.9% increase in 2023. Cooling measures introduced in 3Q2024 have tempered million-dollar transactions, which declined by 13.9% quarter-on-quarter to 285 units in 4Q2024. Despite this, the overall number of such transactions in 2024 remains historically elevated, supported by demand for spacious executive flats and flats in mature estates.

Newer flats in mature estates dominated the million-dollar resale segment, accounting for 375 out of 382 transactions for flats with lease commencement dates from 2013 onwards. These properties are favoured for their accessibility, modern layouts, and longer leases, highlighting the importance of strategic urban planning in addressing buyer preferences.

In summary, the 4Q2024 estimates depict a recovering private property market and a resilient HDB resale segment, shaped by adaptive buyer sentiments and strategic interventions. Both markets are set for stable growth in 2025, underscored by a balance of robust demand, limited supply, and regulatory oversight.

Click here for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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Property Insight

Private New Home Sales in November 2025 Anchored by The Sen

Private new home sales in November 2025 moderated from the exceptionally strong performance seen in October, largely due to the absence of major new launches rather than a deterioration in underlying demand. Developer sales excluding executive condominiums reached 325 units, easing from 2,424 units in October. This moderation followed a sharp contrast in launch volumes, as October benefited from the release of 2,233 units, while November saw only 347 units launched, all of which came exclusively from a single project, The Sen.

Despite the quieter month, buyer activity remained well supported. The Rest of Central Region emerged as the dominant contributor, accounting for 66.2 percent of all private new home sales. This strong showing was directly linked to the launch of The Sen, which anchored market activity and became the focal point for buyers seeking well located city fringe homes. The Outside Central Region contributed 24.6 percent of sales, reflecting continued interest from buyers prioritising affordability and family sized layouts in suburban locations.

At the project level, The Sen was the clear standout, achieving 77 units sold and leading the sales chart by a wide margin. As the final non landed private residential launch of 2025, it attracted sustained interest from both owner occupiers and investors, especially in a month with no competing new projects. Other RCR developments also recorded steady transactions. The Continuum and Bloomsbury Residences each sold 22 units, supported by their city fringe positioning. Overall, November’s sales distribution highlighted how buyers gravitated toward projects that offered either fresh market visibility or compelling value propositions when supply was limited

On a year-to-date basis, new home sales excluding executive condominiums have shown a strong and sustained rebound in 2025. With November figures included, total developer sales reached 10,624 units in the first 11 months of the year.

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here

for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

Property Insight

Key Trends Shaping the HDB Resale Market in 2026

The 2026 HDB resale market is poised for a more balanced and sustainable year, shaped primarily by a strong uplift in resale supply and steady underlying demand. As 2025 draws to a close, resale activity has moderated, influenced by expanded new flat launches and a much smaller cohort of flats reaching Minimum Occupation Period in 2025. Based on data from HDB and data.gov.sg, the first 11 months of 2025 recorded about 23,924 resale transactions, reflecting a 10.2 percent moderation compared to the same period in 2024.

The new flat supply landscape in 2025 played a significant role in shaping buyer behaviour. BTO launches rose slightly year on year, while Sale of Balance Flats supply expanded sharply to 10,252 units due to two SBF exercises conducted within the year. Standard flats made up the bulk of the BTO supply at 50.6 percent, underscoring HDB’s continued focus on broad accessibility. Prime and Plus flats, which accounted for 36.5 percent and 12.9 percent respectively, continued to attract households drawn to central locations and long term value potential, even as clawback rates were progressively refined.

Demand fundamentals remain resilient as household formation stays steady and policy enhancements support right sizing among seniors. Findings from HDB’s latest Sample Household Survey also show more young families living near parents, boosting demand in established towns. Taken together, 2026 is expected to be a year of healthier balance, steady performance, and moderated price growth anchored by a significantly larger supply pipeline and stable demographic needs.

Click

here

for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

Property Insight

1H2026 GLS Programme To Deliver a Calibrated and Steady Supply Pipeline

The 1H2026 Government Land Sales programme will introduce 4575 private housing units on the confirmed list, which is 3.2% lower than the 4725 units in 2H2025 and 9.0% below the 5030 units in 1H2025. Despite this moderation, the overall pipeline remains healthy when including the reserve list, resulting in a total of 9185 units, broadly comparable with earlier programmes. The calibrated adjustment reflects the authorities’ intention to pace out land supply following the stronger injections seen from 2024 to 2025, which had helped stabilise market conditions and ease previous tight inventory.

The confirmed list features nine sites across multiple regions. Bayshore Drive is the largest site, capped at 1280 units, positioning it as a future mega development anchoring the transformation of the Bayshore precinct. New Upper Changi Road contributes about 1040 units, reinforcing the Eastern Corridor’s residential pipeline. At the other end of the spectrum, Lorong Puntong is the smallest site with about 140 units, likely taking shape as an exclusive low density project benefiting from strong connectivity via the Thomson East Coast Line.

Two Executive Condominium (EC) sites are included — Sembawang Drive and Canberra Drive — providing a combined supply of about 635 units. ECs have demonstrated strong performance, with 1550 new EC units sold in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the full year figure of 1227 units in 2024. ECs continue to show investment resilience, supported by their hybrid nature and strong resale outcomes.

Overall, the 1H2026 GLS programme presents a balanced and well timed pipeline across city fringe, suburban, and transformation areas. The moderated confirmed list supply, paired with a still robust total pipeline, supports sustainable market conditions while allowing earlier GLS injections to be absorbed progressively.

Click

here

for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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