SRI - Singapore Realtors Inc.

02 Jan 2025

4Q2024 Flash Estimates: Singapore’s Property Market at a Turning Point

Property Insight

The 4Q2024 URA and HDB Flash Estimates reveal a notable recovery in the private property market and a tempered growth in the HDB resale market. According to SRI Research, the private property price index grew by 2.3% in 4Q2024, rebounding from a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. This resurgence is attributed to easing interest rates and a wave of new project launches, which boosted buyer confidence and increased transaction volumes.

Private property transactions saw a substantial quarter-on-quarter rise, with volume increasing by 25.0% to 6,715 units and transaction value surging 33.6% to $15.7 billion. The $1.5 million to $3.0 million price segment led the market, growing from 63.6% of sales in 2023 to 70.3% in 2024, reflecting buyers' preference for affordability and value. Overall, private property prices in 2024 increased moderately by 3.9%, down from the 6.8% growth recorded in 2023, signaling a stabilizing market influenced by Government Land Sales (GLS), inflationary pressures, and earlier cooling measures.

In the HDB resale market, prices grew at a slower pace of 2.5% in 4Q2024, compared to 2.7% in 3Q2024. Annual growth, however, reached 9.6%, nearly doubling the 4.9% increase in 2023. Cooling measures introduced in 3Q2024 have tempered million-dollar transactions, which declined by 13.9% quarter-on-quarter to 285 units in 4Q2024. Despite this, the overall number of such transactions in 2024 remains historically elevated, supported by demand for spacious executive flats and flats in mature estates.

Newer flats in mature estates dominated the million-dollar resale segment, accounting for 375 out of 382 transactions for flats with lease commencement dates from 2013 onwards. These properties are favoured for their accessibility, modern layouts, and longer leases, highlighting the importance of strategic urban planning in addressing buyer preferences.

In summary, the 4Q2024 estimates depict a recovering private property market and a resilient HDB resale segment, shaped by adaptive buyer sentiments and strategic interventions. Both markets are set for stable growth in 2025, underscored by a balance of robust demand, limited supply, and regulatory oversight.

Click here for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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Commentary on Latest Annoucements

Singapore’s latest housing measures represent a calibrated easing of selected market constraints while retaining safeguards against speculative demand, affordability pressures and delayed project delivery. The two key changes are the removal of the 15-month wait-out period for certain HDB resale buyers and longer Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty redevelopment timelines for qualifying large and mega en bloc sites.

With immediate effect, private residential property owners and former owners may purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat without waiting 15 months, provided they do not use an HDB housing loan. Eligible buyers must still obtain an HDB Flat Eligibility letter and dispose of any private property in Singapore or overseas within six months of completing the resale-flat purchase. The 30-month wait-out period remains applicable to subsidised HDB flats, executive condominiums purchased from developers and buyers using an HDB housing loan.

The easing restores housing mobility for genuine owner-occupier right-sizers and households undergoing retirement, employment changes, divorce or financial pressure. It removes the need for an extended temporary accommodation period while preserving important eligibility and financing controls.

The policy change comes as HDB resale price momentum has moderated. Resale prices declined by 0.4% in the first half of 2026, the first first-half contraction since 2019. Larger-flat resale volumes have also eased from recent peaks. This suggests that the market has become more balanced following pandemic-era price gains, successive cooling measures and an expansion in housing supply.

The second measure provides longer redevelopment and sales periods for qualifying en bloc sites acquired from 29 July 2026. Large sites with 700 to 1,399 units will receive six years to complete and sell their projects, while mega sites with at least 1,400 units will receive seven years. Mega projects must still sell at least 50% of their units by the end of Year 6, while the 2.5-year construction commencement deadline remains unchanged.

Click

here

for the full report:

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

Property Insight

2Q2026 Singapore Residential Market Report: Resilient Demand Despite Global Uncertainty

Singapore's private residential market remained resilient in 2Q2026, supported by healthy buyer demand despite a gradual moderation in price growth. New home sales (excluding Executive Condominiums) increased to 2,141 units, representing a 6.4% quarter-on-quarter increase from 2,013 units in 1Q2026. The improvement was driven primarily by strong demand within the Outside Central Region (OCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR), which more than offset slower sales in the Core Central Region (CCR). Well-priced projects such as Tengah Garden Residences, Vela Bay, and Hudson Place Residences attracted strong interest from HDB upgraders and owner-occupiers, reflecting continued preference for city fringe and suburban developments offering better affordability and value.

The resale private residential market also strengthened during the quarter, with transactions rising from 3,225 units to 3,813 units, representing an 18.2% increase from the previous quarter. Growth was broad-based across all market segments, with the OCR continuing to account for the largest share of resale activity due to its relatively affordable pricing, established residential estates and wider selection of family-oriented housing. The increase in completed developments over recent years has expanded resale supply, providing buyers with greater choice while supporting a more balanced and orderly market.

Private residential prices continued to increase during the first half of 2026, although growth moderated. Prices rose 1.4% in 1H2026, compared with 1.8% in 1H2025, reflecting a market transitioning towards a more sustainable pace of appreciation. The moderation is attributed to the Government's sustained expansion of housing supply through the Government Land Sales programme and the increasing completion of residential developments, which have widened housing options and reduced upward price pressures.

Looking ahead, market activity is expected to remain supported by a healthy pipeline of new launches, including Dunearn House, Thomson Reserve, and Lucerne Grand. The successful launch of Lentor Gardens Residences demonstrates that buyer demand remains healthy for well-located and appropriately priced developments. Although global uncertainties, including interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions and new trade tariffs, may encourage buyers to adopt a more measured approach, Singapore's strong economic fundamentals and transparent regulatory framework are expected to continue supporting market confidence.

Click

here

for the full report:

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

Property Insight

Singapore HDB Resale Market Trends 2Q2026: Stable Demand Amid Growing Supply

The HDB resale market remained resilient in 2Q2026, with transaction volumes increasing marginally to 6,396 units, up 1.8% from 6,285 units in 1Q2026. Despite the June 2026 Build-To-Order (BTO) launch of approximately 6,952 flats, including projects in highly sought-after mature estates such as Bishan, Bukit Merah and Ang Mo Kio, resale demand remained broadly stable. This reflects continued underlying demand for resale flats even as buyers are presented with a wider range of public housing options.

Price movements continued to moderate during the quarter, reinforcing the market's transition towards a healthier and more sustainable phase. The HDB Resale Price Index eased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, following the 0.1% moderation recorded in 1Q2026. Cumulatively, resale prices moderated by 0.4% in the first half of 2026, a notable shift from the 2.5% increase registered over the same period in 2025. Rather than indicating weakening demand, the moderation reflects the cumulative impact of expanded public housing supply through larger BTO launches, multiple Sale of Balance Flats exercises, Shorter Waiting Time flats, and an increasing number of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), giving buyers greater choice across different housing segments.

Across the resale market, pricing trends have become increasingly measured and differentiated. Median resale prices for most flat types remained broadly stable or moderated slightly, particularly for 3-room, 5-room and Executive flats. Overall, pricing is becoming more reflective of individual flat attributes such as location, age and remaining lease rather than broad market-wide appreciation.

Looking ahead, the HDB resale market is expected to remain fundamentally resilient as supply continues to expand. Upcoming BTO launches, additional Sale of Balance Flats exercises, Shorter Waiting Time flats and a growing pipeline of MOP flats are expected to further improve housing availability and distribute demand more evenly across BTO and resale segments.

Click

here

for the full report:

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

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