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3Q2026 URA and HDB Flash Estimates: Private Home Prices Rise as HDB Resale Prices Ease

Singapore’s residential property market showed diverging trends in 3Q2026, with private residential prices strengthening while HDB resale prices continued to moderate. URA’s flash estimates indicate that private home prices increased by 1.4% quarter on quarter, bringing the estimated increase for the first nine months of 2026 to 2.8%, slightly above the 2.7% recorded over the corresponding period in 2025. The increase came amid a relatively limited fresh launch pipeline. Developers launched 3,627 units in 1H2026, while 3Q2026 saw fewer major projects entering the market. Lentor Gardens Residences and Dunearn House were the two major fresh launches, supplemented by smaller developments including Duet @ Emily and The Bronze. Looking ahead, a broader launch pipeline is expected to support private residential activity in 4Q2026, providing buyers with greater choice across locations and price points. Affordability, borrowing costs and individual project pricing are expected to remain important considerations. In the public housing market, HDB’s flash estimates indicate that resale prices moderated by 0.2% quarter on quarter in 3Q2026. This brings the estimated price movement for the first nine months of 2026 to -0.6%, compared with a 2.9% increase during the corresponding period in 2025. As highlighted by the historical comparison on page 3, this represents the lowest first nine-month performance in eight years, since the -0.8% recorded in 2018. The moderation reflects an expanding pipeline of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period, increased resale inventory and the ramp-up in BTO and Sale of Balance Flats supply. Policy changes are also reshaping the HDB market. The removal of the 15-month wait-out period for eligible private property owners could introduce some additional resale demand, while the increase in the monthly household income ceiling for families from S$14,000 to S$16,000 broadens access to subsidised public housing. Overall, HDB resale prices are expected to remain broadly stable in 2026.

Strong Developer Interest in Canberra Drive EC Site as 13 Bids Emerge

The tender for the Canberra Drive Executive Condominium site attracted 13 bids, reflecting broad developer participation for the first EC land parcel tendered under the revised EC framework. The highest bid of approximately $163.9 million, or $825 psf ppr, was submitted by the consortium comprising SNCS Realty, HS Invesco and Kay Lim Realty. This was 12.7% above the $732 psf ppr achieved for the recent Miltonia Close EC site. The relatively close positioning of the leading bids suggests that several developers arrived at broadly similar assessments of the site’s development potential and the underlying depth of demand for new EC housing in Canberra and the wider northern region. Developer participation also indicates continued appetite for EC development opportunities despite the revised policy framework. The relatively small scale of Canberra Drive may have supported developer confidence. The site is expected to yield approximately 185 units, considerably fewer than recent EC GLS sites such as Miltonia Close, with around 430 units, and Woodlands Drive 17, with around 560 units. Recent EC sales performance may have provided further confidence. Aurelle of Tampines, North Gaia and Otto Place were each more than 99% sold as of September 2026, while Rivelle Tampines was 97.4% sold and Coastal Cabana was 83.8% sold. The increase in the EC household income ceiling from $16,000 to $18,000 also potentially broadens the pool of income eligible households for future projects under the new framework. Canberra Drive is strategically located within a growing residential enclave, with close proximity to Canberra MRT station on the North South Line. The site is also near Canberra Plaza, Sun Plaza and a range of neighbourhood amenities. The established residential catchment within Canberra and the wider northern region could provide a source of upgrader demand. Looking ahead, developers are likely to remain mindful of the upcoming EC supply pipeline. Five projects already awarded under the previous framework could collectively introduce an estimated 1,981 units between 4Q2026 and 3Q2027. Several are located within the northern region, potentially competing for a similar pool of first timer and upgrader demand.

Developer Sales August 2026: Existing Projects Sustain Buyer Interest

Singapore’s new private home market took a breather in August 2026, with 153 units sold excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs), compared with 731 units in July. The moderation was largely anticipated due to the absence of major new project launches and the Hungry Ghost Festival period, when developers traditionally take a more measured approach towards launches. As such, the lower sales volume primarily reflects launch timing and limited fresh supply rather than a significant shift in underlying homebuyer demand. The quieter launch calendar gave previously launched projects greater visibility and a longer window to sustain marketing efforts and convert buyer interest. July launches Dunearn House and Lentor Gardens Residences emerged as August’s two best-selling projects. Dunearn House recorded 18 units sold at a median price of $3,008 psf, while Lentor Gardens Residences sold another 15 units at a median $2,367 psf. Their continued sales indicate that buyer interest carried through beyond the initial launch period despite the quieter primary market. Other projects continued to record transactions. Coastal Cabana EC and The Sen each sold 12 units, followed by Union Square Residences with 10 units and Hudson Place Residences with nine. Arina East Residences recorded eight sales, while Chuan Park, Narra Residences and Rivelle Tampines EC each sold six units. The project table on page 2 shows that demand remained spread across the Core Central Region, Rest of Central Region and Outside Central Region. Existing EC projects under the previous framework also remained well absorbed. As of August, Aurelle of Tampines, North Gaia, Otto Place and Rivelle Tampines had each sold more than 97% of their units. Coastal Cabana was 82.1% sold, with 134 units remaining. The EC market is entering a transition following policy measures introduced in May and the subsequent National Day Rally announcement, which raised the EC household income ceiling from $16,000 to $18,000 for projects on sites where land sale tenders close on or after 24 August 2026. Existing projects and sites awarded before the effective date will continue under the previous framework. Looking ahead, September could remain relatively measured amid the school holiday period, although the new home market is positioned for a subsequent pickup. Upcoming projects including Amberwood at Holland, Lucerne Grand, Thomson Reserve and The Serra Residences are expected to introduce fresh residential supply and broaden homebuyer choices across different locations and market segments. The return of major launches should help reenergise primary market activity, with sales momentum for the remainder of 2026 increasingly shaped by the timing, pricing and market reception of these developments. External economic and financing conditions are also expected to become increasingly important considerations for homebuyers as the market moves into the next phase of its launch cycle.