21 Feb 2024
4Q2023 Quarterly HDB Resale Market Trends
Property Insight

In Q4 2023, the HDB resale market observed a slight downturn, with transaction numbers decreasing by 2.2% from 6,695 flats in Q3 to 6,547 flats. This contributed to a 4.2% year-on-year decline in resale transactions for the entire year, totaling 26,735 flats, compared to 27,896 in 2022. The report also notes a moderation in resale prices by 4.9% for 2023, a stark contrast to the 10.4% increase seen in 2022. This moderation is attributed to a combination of the holiday season's usual slowdown and the strategic timing of Build-To-Order (BTO) flat launches in October and December, which diverted potential buyers towards new housing options.

The rental segment of the HDB market experienced growth, with an 8.2% increase in approved applications for renting out HDB flats, rising from 36,166 in 2022 to 39,138 in2023. This uptick suggests a robust demand for rental housing, likely fueled by homeowners opting to rent out their flats amidst the changing market landscape.

A notable trend in 2023 was the significant presence of million-dollar HDB resale transactions, underscoring the enduring appeal of select HDB flats in certain locations. The Year saw 470 transactions exceeding the million-dollar mark, with the vast majority occurring in mature estates. This phenomenon highlights the high value placed on well-located, well-appointed public housing units, suggesting a market segment resilient to broader market shifts.

The report delves into the dynamics of flats becoming eligible for resale after meeting theirMinimum Occupation Period (MOP). A comparative analysis between 2022 and 2023 revealed a marked increase in the proportion of freshly MOP-eligible flats being sold,indicating a growing willingness among homeowners to sell their flats upon meeting theMOP requirements.

Looking forward,we anticipate a crucial role for first-time home buyers in sustaining demand within the HDB resale market. It also outlines the implications of reduced BTOlaunches and the introduction of stricter BTO application regulations, which are expected to influence buyer behavior and potentially redirect some demand towards the resale market.The changes in BTO launch frequency and the application process aim to ensure that available flats are allocated to genuinely interested buyers, thereby maintaining a balanced demand-supply dynamic in the face of decreased new flat availability.

In conclusion, while the HDB resale market in Q4 2023 saw a slight pullback in transactions and price growth, underlying trends such as the increase in rental demand and the persistence of million-dollar transactions indicate a complex interplay of factors shaping the market. The strategic adjustments in BTO launches and policy shifts are poised to influence future market dynamics, potentially steering more prospective homeowners towards the resale market as they navigate the evolving landscape of Singapore's public housing sector.

Click here for the full report

Prepared By:
Mohan Sandrasegeran
Head of Research & Data Analytics

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Resilient 1H2024 Growth in CCR Non-Landed Property Market

In the first half of 2024, the non-landed property market in the Core Central Region (CCR) showed resilient growth despite a slight moderation in the second quarter. Prices in the CCR adjusted by 0.2% in 2Q2024, following a 3.4% increase in 1Q2024. Overall, non-landed prices in the CCR rose by 3.2% during the first half of 2024, significantly outpacing the 0.8% increase seen in the first half of 2023. This growth was likely driven by an increase in transactions at the $10 million and above price point, highlighting the robustness and potential of the non-landed property sector in the CCR.

Top-Selling New Project Launches in CCR for 1H2024

The best-selling new project launches in the CCR for the first half of 2024 included:

• 19 Nassim: Sold 35 units at a median price of $3,334 per square foot (psf).

• Watten House: Sold 33 units at a median price of $3,246 psf, attributed to its location in a sought-after Good Class Bungalow neighborhood.

• Klimt Cairnhill: Sold 32 units at a median price of $3,402 psf.

• One Bernam: Sold 16 units at a median price of $2,690 psf.

• Enchanté: Sold 9 units at a median price of $2,821 psf.

The scarcity of new project launches within the CCR has fueled a healthy level of interest among buyers and investors.

Skywaters Residences Leads High-Value CCR Launches in 1H2024

High-value new launch condominiums, particularly those priced at $10 million and above, saw notable transactions in 1H2024. Key developments included:

• Skywaters Residences: Achieved a record price of $47.3 million ($6,100 psf) for a unit, setting a new benchmark for luxury living.

• 32 Gilstead: Transacted three units at prices around $14.5 million.

• Watten House: Continued strong performance with units sold around $11.8 to $12.2 million.

These transactions underscore the enduring appeal of premium properties to wealthy foreign investors, with Skywaters Residences capturing significant interest due to its exclusive residential experience and prime location.

Underlying Presence of High-Value Resale Condo Transactions in 1H2024

The resale condominium market in 1H2024 also saw significant transactions, particularly those exceeding the $10 million threshold. Notable transactions included:

• The Ritz-Carlton Residences Singapore, Cairnhill: Two units sold for $16.5 million each ($5,397 psf).

• St Regis Residences Singapore: Sold a unit for $14 million.

• Hilltops, The Marq On Paterson Hill, Ardmore Park, and 3 Orchard By-The-Park: All saw high-value transactions.

These sales highlight the continued demand for luxury resale properties in prime locations.

Modest Increase in Foreign Purchases of Non-Landed Properties in 2Q2024

Foreign purchases of non-landed properties increased modestly in 2Q2024, rising from 21 units in 1Q2024 to an estimated 45 units. This marks the highest number of units purchased by foreigners since 2Q2023. Despite higher Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates, foreign buyers continue to be significant players in the property market, reflecting the enduring appeal of the CCR segment.

Outlook

The outlook for the CCR market in the second half of 2024 remains cautiously optimistic. The positive performance in the first half, coupled with high-value transactions and gradual growth in foreign buyer interest, suggests a resilient market. Upcoming projects like One Sophia/The Collective at One Sophia are expected to attract significant interest due to their prime locations and excellent accessibility. Investors and buyers are encouraged to stay attentive to market trends and emerging opportunities, particularly in high-value segments. The CCR's premium properties, with their strategic locations and exclusive amenities, are likely to maintain their attractiveness to both local and international buyers.

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Prepared By:

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Head of Research & Data Analytics

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Stability & Sustained Demand

In the first half of 2024, the landed property market in Singapore experienced a stable yet moderate growth trajectory. The Landed Price Index showed a 1.8% increase in the second quarter, a slight deceleration from the 2.6% growth observed in the first quarter. Overall, landed prices rose by 4.5% in the first half of the year, a slower pace compared to the 7.0% increase during the same period in 2023. This moderation reflects a balanced market with consistent demand, primarily driven by private home upgraders and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs).

Surge in High-Value Transactions

High-value transactions in the landed property segment saw a notable increase. The number of transactions priced at $10 million and above reached 38 units in 2Q2024, up from 33 units in 1Q2024, marking the highest quarterly total since 1Q2023. This rise indicates strong demand for exclusive and luxurious residences, fueled by limited supply, investment opportunities, and the appeal of prestigious addresses.

Leading Districts and Transaction Volume

District 19 led the landed property transactions with 152 units in 1H2024, followed by Districts 15 and 28, each with 102 units. The total number of landed transactions reached 839 in the first half of 2024, up from 755 in the same period in 2023, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth. The total transaction value also increased by 4.3%, reaching $4.5 billion.

Private Home Upgraders

Private home upgraders significantly contributed to the market's dynamism. In 1H2024, 710 units were purchased by this group, compared to 635 units in 1H2023. This trend was particularly strong in 2Q2024, with 390 units bought, the highest quarterly number since 3Q2022. Factors driving this surge include the desire for larger living spaces and long-term investments.

Good Class Bungalow (GCB) Market

The GCB market continued to attract HNWIs, with at least 10 caveated transactions in 1H2024. The highest transacted GCB was at Ford Avenue, sold for $39.5 million. Despite challenges such as a major money laundering scandal and high-interest rates in 2023, GCBs remained highly coveted. The GCB market's resilience underscores the strong demand for prestigious and exclusive properties, bolstered by economic stability and favourable market conditions.

Outlook for 2024

The outlook for the landed property market in Singapore remains positive for the remainder of 2024. Steady price increases, robust transaction volumes, and strong demand from private home upgraders and HNWIs are expected to sustain market resilience. Buyers' preference for larger and more exclusive residences will continue to drive demand. The market's attractiveness to HNWIs seeking long-term investment opportunities and luxurious living spaces ensures its continued growth. Stable economic conditions are anticipated to further bolster this trend.

The landed property market in Singapore demonstrates a robust and resilient performance in 1H2024, supported by sustained demand from private home upgraders and affluent buyers. This sector's stability and moderate growth underscore its appeal as a prime investment and residential choice in Singapore's real estate landscape.

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2Q2024 URA/HDB Flash Estimates

URA Property Price Index:

The private residential index for 2Q2024 increased by 1.1%, a slight moderation from the 1.4% rise in 1Q2024. This growth is primarily driven by sustained demand for high-end properties and an increase in private resale transactions, particularly from private home upgraders.

Notable Transactions:

In 2Q2024, there were at least 11 notable non-landed private property transactions exceeding $10 million, compared to six such transactions in 1Q2024. This trend underscores sustained interest in luxury units among high-net-worth buyers. Prominent transactions included Skywaters Residences ($47.3 million), 32 Gilstead, St Regis Residences Singapore, Reflections At Keppel Bay, The Marq On Paterson Hill, 3 Orchard By-The-Park, and Ardmore Park.

The high price points reflect the premium locations and limited availability of such units. Despite the moderation in Core Central Region (CCR) prices, the overall price index remains driven by these high-value transactions.

Private Resale Transactions:

Private resale transactions from buyers with a private home address increased from 1,626 units in 4Q2023 to an estimated 1,788 units in 2Q2024. 

HDB Resale Price Index:

Flash estimates from HDB indicate a 2.1% increase in resale prices in 2Q2024, up from the 1.8% rise in 1Q2024.

Average HDB Resale Prices:

• Geylang: Increased from $531.1K in 1Q2024 to $600.6K in 2Q2024 (13.1% rise)

• Marine Parade: Increased from $541.9K in 1Q2024 to $604.0K in 2Q2024 (11.5% rise)

• Central Area: Increased from $643.9K in 1Q2024 to $703.7K in 2Q2024 (9.3% rise)

• Toa Payoh: Increased from $614.6K in 1Q2024 to $658.5K in 2Q2024 (7.1% rise)

• Pasir Ris: Increased from $677.0K in 1Q2024 to $714.0K in 2Q2024 (5.5% rise)

Million-Dollar HDB Resale Transactions:

 In 2Q2024, there were 236 HDB resale transactions exceeding the million-dollar mark, up from 183 in 1Q2024. This represents a 29.0% quarter-over-quarter growth, marking the highest number of million-dollar transactions in a single quarter. The surge can be attributed to the demand for spacious accommodations and newer flats, with 96 out of 236 transactions for 5-room flats. The Kallang/Whampoa estate had the highest number of such transactions, driven by newer flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP).

HDB Resale Volume:

The HDB resale volume marginally increased, with 7,208 resale flats transacted in 2Q2024, compared to 7,068 in 1Q2024, representing a 2.0% quarter-on-quarter growth. Despite factors such as school holidays and the final Build-To-Order (BTO) launch before a new classification system, the resale market demonstrated resilience.

Outlook:

The second half of 2024 is anticipated to attract significant interest from buyers and investors with several new launch developments in the pipeline, such as Sora, The Chuan Park, Union Square Residences, Aurea, and Norwood Grand. These projects offer diverse living options catering to various preferences and needs, enhancing the attractiveness of the new launch segment.

With fewer flats projected to reach MOP in 2024 compared to 2023, the HDB resale market is expected to remain robust, driven by the reduced availability of newer flats. The extended gap between BTO and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises is likely to prompt potential homebuyers to explore resale market options.

Click

here

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Prepared By: 

Mohan Sandrasegeran 

Head of Research & Data Analytics