SRI - Singapore Realtors Inc.

12 Dec 2025

Key Trends Shaping the HDB Resale Market in 2026

The 2026 HDB resale market is poised for a more balanced and sustainable year, shaped primarily by a strong uplift in resale supply and steady underlying demand. As 2025 draws to a close, resale activity has moderated, influenced by expanded new flat launches and a much smaller cohort of flats reaching Minimum Occupation Period in 2025. Based on data from HDB and data.gov.sg, the first 11 months of 2025 recorded about 23,924 resale transactions, reflecting a 10.2 percent moderation compared to the same period in 2024.

The new flat supply landscape in 2025 played a significant role in shaping buyer behaviour. BTO launches rose slightly year on year, while Sale of Balance Flats supply expanded sharply to 10,252 units due to two SBF exercises conducted within the year. Standard flats made up the bulk of the BTO supply at 50.6 percent, underscoring HDB’s continued focus on broad accessibility. Prime and Plus flats, which accounted for 36.5 percent and 12.9 percent respectively, continued to attract households drawn to central locations and long term value potential, even as clawback rates were progressively refined.

Demand fundamentals remain resilient as household formation stays steady and policy enhancements support right sizing among seniors. Findings from HDB’s latest Sample Household Survey also show more young families living near parents, boosting demand in established towns. Taken together, 2026 is expected to be a year of healthier balance, steady performance, and moderated price growth anchored by a significantly larger supply pipeline and stable demographic needs.

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Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

02 Dec 2025

1H2026 GLS Programme To Deliver a Calibrated and Steady Supply Pipeline

The 1H2026 Government Land Sales programme will introduce 4575 private housing units on the confirmed list, which is 3.2% lower than the 4725 units in 2H2025 and 9.0% below the 5030 units in 1H2025. Despite this moderation, the overall pipeline remains healthy when including the reserve list, resulting in a total of 9185 units, broadly comparable with earlier programmes. The calibrated adjustment reflects the authorities’ intention to pace out land supply following the stronger injections seen from 2024 to 2025, which had helped stabilise market conditions and ease previous tight inventory.

The confirmed list features nine sites across multiple regions. Bayshore Drive is the largest site, capped at 1280 units, positioning it as a future mega development anchoring the transformation of the Bayshore precinct. New Upper Changi Road contributes about 1040 units, reinforcing the Eastern Corridor’s residential pipeline. At the other end of the spectrum, Lorong Puntong is the smallest site with about 140 units, likely taking shape as an exclusive low density project benefiting from strong connectivity via the Thomson East Coast Line.

Two Executive Condominium (EC) sites are included — Sembawang Drive and Canberra Drive — providing a combined supply of about 635 units. ECs have demonstrated strong performance, with 1550 new EC units sold in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the full year figure of 1227 units in 2024. ECs continue to show investment resilience, supported by their hybrid nature and strong resale outcomes.

Overall, the 1H2026 GLS programme presents a balanced and well timed pipeline across city fringe, suburban, and transformation areas. The moderated confirmed list supply, paired with a still robust total pipeline, supports sustainable market conditions while allowing earlier GLS injections to be absorbed progressively.

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Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg

28 Nov 2025

Positive EC Market Momentum Builds Confidence Ahead of Coastal Cabana Launch

The Executive Condominium market continued to show firm momentum in the first 10 months of 2025, reinforcing its reputation as one of the most resilient and value driven residential segments in Singapore. SRI Research’s analysis of 67 EC developments recorded 1,625 resale transactions during this period, and more than 97 percent of caveated resales achieved positive gains. This high success rate reflects the EC model’s strength as a pathway for long term capital appreciation, particularly for HDB upgraders seeking private housing at a more accessible entry point.

Both recently completed and older ECs contributed to profitable outcomes, although newer projects made up the larger share of gains. Around 69.1 percent of profitable transactions came from ECs completed within the last 10 years, signalling sustained demand for developments with modern facilities and longer remaining leases.

Buyer profiles also highlight the EC market’s broadening reach. Private address buyers made up 53.4 percent of profitable resale transactions, showing increased participation from owners already in the private segment who seek larger formats at comparatively attractive price points. At the same time, 46.6 percent of transactions involved HDB address buyers, indicating that ECs remain a key stepping stone for upgraders entering the private housing market.

Land bid patterns further reinforce the affordability edge. EC land bids averaged $748 psf ppr in the first ten months of 2025, while OCR private residential land bids averaged $1,114 psf ppr, creating a 49 percent gap. Despite gradually rising EC land prices, the cost structure remains favourable enough for developers to price EC launches below the broader mass market.

Looking ahead, the upcoming Coastal Cabana EC in Pasir Ris is set to attract considerable interest. With 748 units, lifestyle focused design, strong connectivity through Pasir Ris MRT interchange on the Cross Island Line, and proximity to schools and recreation, the development offers a rare coastal living experience within the EC segment. Supply in the East remains limited, further supporting its outlook.

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here

for the full report

Prepared By:

Mohan Sandrasegeran

Head of Research & Data Analytics

Email: mohan@sri.com.sg